|
Two things have been happening a lot lately, IPO?s and ?secondaries? and since
we?ve got a lot of new people reading the publication I thought I might want to
visit secondaries for a moment. Most people understand the idea of an IPO, but
a secondary often gets them a bit confused.
A secondary offering occurs when a company literally releases more stock out
into the float. But some interesting things usually take place when that
happens. Let's look: In general terms when a secondary is announced the stock
will fall like a rock for a day or so. Why? Well, basically they are saying,
"We are putting more shares out there" and that has the undesirable effect of
"dilution." So more times than not when a secondary is announced, that stock
takes a tumble.
Now, why do they do secondaries? For a number of reasons. First, they want
money. The money is generally slated for some type of expansion project or even
hopes of an acquisition. Then they also do them to put more shares out for
institutions to buy. Some institutional buyers will actually approach
management and say, "Hey we would like to take a stake in you but you don't
have enough shares for our liking." Many companies want the exposure that
institutional buying brings and will do the secondary. Sometimes it is done to
allow insiders a chance to sell their shares too. (That isn't too widely done
but it happens) So what does all this mean for us? It means that there is a
good chance the stock will take a near term hit. BUT it also means the stock
will probably be a good buy again shortly afterwards. Here is why: When a
secondary is to be done, there are underwriters involved in marketing that
stock just like when the stock first came public.
Those underwriters are going to want to see the stock price move higher after
the offering (so they can make some money) and will put on a "road show." That
just means they will hype the stock trying to get buyers attracted to it and
get the price moving up again. The moral of the story is that when a good solid
company that is growing does a secondary offering, we can often get the chance
to get into that company at a reduced price. The rebound in the share price can
often be dramatic, often running well past the price when the secondary was
announced.
Many times big buyers from institutions are waiting in the wings for the effects
of the secondary to drive the stock's price down so they can get in it. All
that buying, along with the underwriters "road show" can rebound those shares
quickly. So, when you hear a company announce they are doing a secondary
offering, look for the expected sell off, but watch that stock closely right
after it actually executes the sales. Chances are good that in a short period
of time they will be moving higher!
PS. We only like to see secondaries in "decent companies." A no name company
that trades no volume is not a good candidate.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Larry_Potter
|